@TBPInvictus right here. (Additionally on Submit and Mastodon).
Completely happy holidays to all, and the very best for 2023. It’s been a sizzling minute since my final publish, hope I bear in mind how this factor works.
I’ve been an enormous fan of Twitter for nicely over a decade. It’s a hearth hose of invaluable data from numerous dependable (in case your follows are strong) purveyors of all method of stories, on each matter conceivable, from each nook of the globe. It has been disheartening, to say the least, to observe the vivisection Elon Musk is acting on it since closing his buy in October.
Watching Musk’s ongoing antics, it has turn out to be very clear to me that his actions will not be solely destroying Twitter, however the collateral injury is taking Tesla down with it – a veritable twofer of ineptitude and rake-stepping.
Let’s take a look at some numbers:
The state of NY maintains an excellent catalog of knowledge that may be discovered right here. Drill down a bit and we get to Automobile, Snowmobile, and Boat Registrations. Filtering, we be taught that there are ~48,795 Teslas registered within the state. We’ll do some additional work on that in a bit, however let’s put it apart for now.
The state of NY (clearly) additionally retains information of election outcomes. One such web page could be discovered right here.
Do you see the place that is going?
My thesis is that in Musk’s newfound want to personal the Libs, he’s alienating the very individuals who have overwhelmingly been patrons of his EVs. Find out how to validate this thesis? Effectively, let’s have a look at knowledge for the state of New York from three distinct datasets: Census Bureau provides us inhabitants by county, the state provides us a breakdown of 2020 election outcomes (see above), and one other state database provides us (as however considered one of a very spectacular catalog) car registrations (once more, see above).
The desk above accommodates the highest 10 and backside 10 Trump-voting NY counties within the 2020 election, displaying the share of Trump voters, the inhabitants, the variety of TSLA registrations, and critically, TSLA registrations per 10k inhabitants. The consequence:.
Adjusted for inhabitants, Teslas are ~5x extra frequent in closely Democratic counties than they’re in closely Republican counties.
The info above most likely play a task within the efficiency of TSLA’s inventory, which was $328 on the day Musk introduced his intention to purchase Twitter (see under).
Musk is doing himself no favors. In truth, it’s laborious to think about how he might be doing extra injury to each properties than he at the moment is, however I don’t need to underestimate him.
My buddy Nick Hanauer has apparently seen sufficient; I’m certain he’s not alone.
Extra charts after the soar…
An EV Shopping for Information for Individuals Fed Up With Tesla’s Elon Musk (Bloomberg, December 19, 2022)
I’m a Tesla Investor. Elon Musk Is a Hazard to the Firm. (TDB, December 20, 2022)
Get Your self Some “No Males” (December 19, 2022)
What’s Ailing Tesla’s Inventory? (October 17, 2022)
BR right here, leaping in from vacay so as to add a number of extra charts.
I’ve been amazed for fairly a while by the worth motion in Tesla, and genuinely perplexed about Musk.
Charles Gaba picked up the place Invictus left off, making use of the same evaluation to a couple completely different states. He confirmed the essential premise if Musk proudly owning the Libs is a self-own, a weird means of alienating most of Tesla’s core house owners and future potential patrons.
“Counties the place Trump acquired < 30% of the vote in 2020 registered *60x* as many Teslas PER CAPITA than counties the place he obtained >70%.” (not 60 %, however 60 occasions!)
Right here is the chart of California:
Gaba carried out the identical evaluation on 6 states (with the caveat that every state manages its knowledge considerably otherwise).
Its much less dramatic than California alone, however the total conclusion is identical: In states as assorted as California, Florida, Montana, New York, Tennessee & Virginia, representing 98M folks or ~30% of the U.S. inhabitants, Tesla registrations are 6.7x greater in counties the place Trump obtained lower than 30% of the vote than counties the place he obtained > 70% of the vote.
Take pleasure in what’s left of 2022, its one for the document books…